Thursday, April 20, 2006

Today is thinking day

Oil is well over 70 USD and dow jones is near 2000 maximum levels.
This anomaly is not explained by the overliquidity in the markets because interest rates
are already at a medium level, so what is the explanation ?
The trend of the commodities is started from year 2000 coincidentally with the tech bubble
burst at wall street, many analyst continue to hype commodity price telling us that every
commodity bull trend last at least 10/15 years.
So we are at the start of a big rally in the commodities that will last until 2015 ?
I don't think so, but if it is the case then we must absolutely cover us from that risk.
Because if now earnings at the mayority of American and world corporation are at record levels
unfortunately in 1 or 2 years the danger of a big inflation will come upon us and earnings should
come down big, but i think not as big like 2002.
My take is that markets can (under the guide of the FED) coupe with this problem and maybe we are in the middle of a bull market that will bring us at the dow near 15000 and the nasdaq near 4100 in 2008.
Then we will eventually come down but the reduced expectations of growth will cool down also commodity price very fast.
So play with commodities but stay alert to come out very fast because oil at 5 dollar is my target price in 10 years with hydrogen, solar and nuclear technology in ultra fast development.

Bye

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