Natural Gas

Natural gas is in the eye of the cyclone.
After the flash crash of 2 days ago everyone is worried about pessimism in natural gas market.

I am actually long natural gas and i believe we will see at least 7.50 in the futures in september.

The video "gasland" is very clear about the actual gas industry, and i think that we are seeing weakness in nat gas largely because of the panic involved in this investigation... but if we watch this in a longer timeframe it could be better for nat gas prices.

If industry changes the way is using to drill nat gas and the government bans hydraulic fracturing, there will be less nat gas available... so prices will rise maybe over 10 Usd possibli even more.

Nat gas could possibly reach 20/30 usd area in 10 years from now and stabilize there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZe1AeH0Qz8

This is the trailer of "Gasland" the document that probably is starting to revolutionize nat gas market. We need to stop Hydraulic Fracturing and use a different method... at any price.

If you follow UNG remember the contango before entering for a long time... UNG is a great vehicle for trading.

Distribution ?

I think that the marked will be totally clueless of the right direction for a few months... stuck in the big trading range 1000/1200 then it will crash a little towards 900/850 area... then it will resume a slow but solid recover towards 1500 but it will be so slow it could arrive there in 2014

850 Area

I think we are on the verge of the critical test at the lows.

If the lows will keep market over 820 or at least over 800 area we could see a big rally towards end of the year... if not before we could make a trip maybe at 690 in ES.

Good Luck

i will accumulate more share in ATVI , CHK , ATI , EWJ , STRONG BUY
and INTC, PFE, AA BUY

Am considering a long in UYG (financials deserve a big year end rally... executives are buying big and UYG will return over 15 USD at year end so STRONG BUY)

ATVI Earnings

Very good earnings call... considering that Blizzard has yet to push out the titles of holiday season i consider that at this prices this stock is really really undervalued.
STRONG BUY confirmed, bought more and i will not sell until 30 USD.

Market action today was corrective... sell the news enviroment with the election rally.

I think now we will be in a lateral consolidation that could test 900 level potentially... and the trading range after the test could be very large.

ATVI Activision Blizzard

Too big games in the pipeline for next year and World of Warcraft expansion will exit soon.
Good opportunity.

Entering at 12 level today with timeframe 1 year.

STRONG BUY target at 25 USD

UPDATE:
Just entered with a tranche at 11.75, i plan to enter with other 2 tranches, if the market makes a move lower i will gladly accept the gift and enter at 11.50 and 11 level if not... i will enter more here and more over 12 level.

Key word,Consolidation

As the title suggest, today is the day of consolidation... very healthy and requested for sure because before going higher big, we need some more longs on the bandwagon... and more shorts that later will have to cover.

As long as we remain over 890/900 area will be consolidation... and if market go down along these supports, we will have the opportunity to evalue its strenght.

Good Move

Very good move, and the late slide is only a volatility snapback... so no problem with that.
I am expecting today and tomorrow a strong market with some consolidation, and the market will prepare itself for the next week in which could rise even further.
I suspect then it will be lateral for a while before make a big move, but i think that ES will be over 1000 very soon.

FED Hour

What we will see ?

If 0.5 cut i expect some consolidation and possibly a return at the 900 area... but i am positive about the outcome. Maybe some sell the news reaction will be the initial theme.

If 0.75 cut... rally all the way over 1000.

In any case long it is the way to be at least for 2 weeks from now... any significant retreat will be bought to catch the bargain.

Good Luck

900 resistance ERASED

Good call, 900 resistance was just erased... so we are gaining very big on our position.
I expect some follow through until Friday.

Eve Online

Wanted only making a tribute to Eve Online www.eve-online.com
About me the best videogame ever created, actually it is really reductive to define it "game".. to me is more a pseudoscientific simulation of epic proportion, it is the only game that has a virtual economy almost totally in the player's hands.

I advice to try it

Here comes a video about it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoorXvpfLwE

Rebound ?

I think that today , after 2 days of big consolidation it seems we are finally arrived at the final capitulation. After steep and precipitous losses in the final 15 minutes of trading yesterday... now the weak hands are off, and we can go up and prepare for the probably year end Bear Market Rally... which could be enormous and take the ES at 1200/1250 area... with a peak at 1300 but from there SHORT because we could return here really really fast.

We are arrived

This is the line of sand

We will watch the lows taken out or the market recovery from here ?

I think we will go really higher but... it is a tough call

Support ES 840
Resistance ES 900

Breakdown or Breakout ?

I choose the second one ! we'll see !

The market didn't panicked

Monday markets can crash ?

I think that this possibility is very low, and around 10% level.

I am sure of one thing, if we'll see market crash tomorrow... the week will be very bad and who knows where at the end the SPY and DOW will be.

I Expect a rebound in the incoming sessions... we should close the week with a net gain of a 10/15% to calm panick and sense of deep frustration along investors.

Last Hour = Hedge Fund Hour

We have this anomaly at the moment, from early october sharp losses at last hour of trading were reconducted to hedge funds forced deleveraging, today we have the rumor about legendary hedge fund Citadel, but somehow i think we wil close higher....
it's a tought call but i think we will close in green !


SPY level at the time of posting 86.50

I think it can go over 90 at the close maybe

Market is resilient

Is This definitely the capitulation ?

The only way we can know is recoup the 90 area in the SPY and break it !

(880 area is first big resistance on ES if we break it next is at 900)

Black Friday ?

ES futures are blocked for now... at 855.25

At the offer there is a very large number of orders just accumulating (over 5000)

I am taking a wide range accumulation approach for now.

For every 10% indexes go down, i will augment my market longs by 50%

My position are ATI AA CHK PFE INTC

Good luck

Just returned

After a long vacation i will continue to update my blog from today

Great Opportunities in these days in the market

What we are seeing is the wildest market of all time, Last week i have bought some stocks and i am positioned on

EWJ,CHK, ATI, AA, PFE, INTC

At these prices i think that they will outperform market on the next months

We'll see

EBAY

Ebay bought another chunk at 31,52

Ebay Update:

Sold flat at 31,52 too risky

EBAY

bought big EBAY at 32,25 i'm looking to sell at 32,50 or at 32,80 bye!

GNSS entry

GNSS after 2 days of consolidation is ready to bounce.

Prepare to enter at a breakout of 13,40 or now with a stop at 12,80.

The stock should open a little over 13.

Good luck !

Cigna Update

Bought CI at 90,10 yesterday at the close, and after a little drop at 89 this morning now the stock is rebounding a bit.

The stock is at 91,88 now and my stop is 90 but i think that the stock can still go over 95 and maybe to 100 to close the gap very soon.

Good luck, and if you are entering now use 91,5 as a stop.

Cigna (CI) Nyse ready to bounce

My take is that the stock is stabilizing now.
I am entering on a volume break of 96 level to return to the 100 level.

Now i will wait to buy at 90 level if the stock pulls back another time.

So the line is wait a little for now !!!

Bye

MOT :Update

Entered with a little position at the open and filled with the big order at 20,94.
Now i have an averaged price of 20,99.

I think to keep them at least until mid may or maybe i could do a little scalping to average them.

Motorola about me is a CORE HOLDING to any tech portfolio NOW.

Good company and when they will decide to recover some gross margins quality the stock will explode.

Bye !

MOT is ready to bounce

About me MOT is ready to bounce, i will wait with a big order a little under 21 USD and i am planning to enter with a little order near 2130 at the open but at these price motorola is clearly undervalued.

MSFT i am IN

i was filled yesterday at 24,01 so now i will see what the price will do.
My take is that we could see 25 very soon.
But if 24 doesn't resist my stop is 23,99

MSFT in big consolidation mode!

I am playing a little with some scalping, but from 2 hours or so the price is in HEAVY consolidation at a tight range, i think that MSFT will recoup a little into the close... i repeat if doesn't break 24 by end of day i am in with a position.

I have a order in at 24,01.

Bye !

Google Position Update !!!!

Today is the day !

As i said in my previous post on GOOG, today we have reached an interesting AREA from witch Google could bounce very well.

I Am entered at 418 good luck all !

Great volume day for Microsoft!

What a big volume, we could easily surpass the 1995 spike at end of day.
My take is that there is a big institutional accumulation because this is the vista year and at these price Microsoft is certainly undervalued.
Hovewer probably if it doesn't break 24 area i will enter tonight at the close or i will wait 21/22 area.

Bye !

Oil at maximum power ?

I am considering to overweight the energy sector in my portfolio until the middle of May because of the Iran affair and i was thinking of two companies now...

The first one is CHK , natural gas price are very low compared to Oil and this company is very undervalued about me. Now it is at 33,25 my target price at the end of may is 40 USD.

The second one is IVAN, a forever garbace stock in these last years but recently has announced the possibility of a big contract coming.
This is obviously more risky than CHK but until the middle of may it can go to 3/4 dollars and now it is at 2,80 circa.

Do your research before investing here!

Iran and Oil

It isn't a secret.
Russian and China have both some big interest in Iran's oil.
They don't want that America , Nato or Onu may be an obstacle to
their interest.
It's all about economical interest now.
China must achieve his economical growth and without an oil reserve they cannot.
Russia has some contracts to supply nuclear technology and who know what else.
Bush wants to block Iran's nuclear reactor this is clear, but with a low consensus at
home, and many americans that don't want another war so soon maybe he'll be forced
to retreat his opinions.
About me there are two possibilities ahead:
1) Bush will persuade Putin and China to invade Iran and block their experiments.
But to do so he must ensure china and russia that they will have an advantage to do so.
How ? i don't know but to block Iran he must.

2) Maybe Iran could go ahead with his experiments, but when they will have their nuclear
reactors activated... they will pursue with military reasearch to achieve a nuclear bomb ? For many people the answer is yes.
Then the world with a government that is not a democracy with a nuclear bomb will be a safer world ?


I don't know what is the answer but i will think about the question over weekend

bye

GOOGLE is unstoppable

Google is a great company isn't it ?
Tonight the management destroyed analyst expectation on the bottom and on the top line.
About me this is a sign that google can fly over 500 very soon, but it isn't all gold.
Google this time has won but i will not enter if the stock is over 450 tomorrow... i will wait for a pullback at the 420 area.

Today is thinking day

Oil is well over 70 USD and dow jones is near 2000 maximum levels.
This anomaly is not explained by the overliquidity in the markets because interest rates
are already at a medium level, so what is the explanation ?
The trend of the commodities is started from year 2000 coincidentally with the tech bubble
burst at wall street, many analyst continue to hype commodity price telling us that every
commodity bull trend last at least 10/15 years.
So we are at the start of a big rally in the commodities that will last until 2015 ?
I don't think so, but if it is the case then we must absolutely cover us from that risk.
Because if now earnings at the mayority of American and world corporation are at record levels
unfortunately in 1 or 2 years the danger of a big inflation will come upon us and earnings should
come down big, but i think not as big like 2002.
My take is that markets can (under the guide of the FED) coupe with this problem and maybe we are in the middle of a bull market that will bring us at the dow near 15000 and the nasdaq near 4100 in 2008.
Then we will eventually come down but the reduced expectations of growth will cool down also commodity price very fast.
So play with commodities but stay alert to come out very fast because oil at 5 dollar is my target price in 10 years with hydrogen, solar and nuclear technology in ultra fast development.

Bye

I was right about Intel

It was not the case painted by many analysts, INTC delivered soft numbers but the report
is not a nightmare... so we are returnet at 20 Area in AH.
Good call ! CLAP CLAP CLAP :-)

Good Work MOT!

About me MOT is poised to reach 30 USD by year end.
Good numbers and good product on the way, about me MOT can reach
NOKIA in the long run.

Yahoo!

Good night yesterday for Yahoo (YHOO: Nasdaq)
Today is a good day for technology stocks, YHOO posted solid numbers and probably will return to 35/37 Area soon.
But Stay alert because over 37 there is an enormous quantity of shorts ready to enter !

NITE is LIVE !

Incredible blowout numbers from NITE that today is posting earnings of $0.52 per share versus the reuters consensus of 0,29.
I have a position in Knight from the last conference call, and after this beat i plan to buy more because there is a big acceleration of revenue that could bring NITE over 20 in a very short time.
About me NITE is very undervalued at current levels of the premarket price, however i will wait a break of 17 level to enter or a pullback at 16 USD.
Remember that there is a large buyback program active.

Bye and good trading

Tomorrow night i will follow closely these stocks

INTC that will report
AMD the way will react to report

About me INTC and AMD will rise sharply tomorrow

bye

Some rumors are out about Intel will miss the quarter.
My take is that if Intel will miss tomorrow who has a position in it doesn't need to sell.
Intel maybe can go at the 18 area but there it will certainly bounce back at 20.
I'd like to note that bank of america recently has released a note which confirms that the worst
is behind at Intel so i think that they are right.
I don't have a position now in Intel or Amd, but i think that they are 2 great companies and they will grow well in the coming quarters.

bye

The American Markets are very bullish today, about me we are seeing some covering ahead of Intel (INTC) conference tomorrow.
Intel is constantly crawling to new lows from February when it warned about big market share losses to rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) that reported good results some days ago.
The maiority of the analysts are sure that Intel is beginning the fiercest price war from 10 years or so, but the stock price of Intel about me is already discounting all the worries.
Probably today movement is caused by big short covering on Intel... that will certainly capitalize on the next quarters.
About me AMD and Intel are undervalued at the moment.
We'll see tomorrow at the close.
Bye

Hi all, from today i will post my thoughts about American stock markets.

If you want to ask something in particular feel free to contact me and i will post here the answers soon.

Thank you

Alkampfer the King